The Social Graph is Neither

I first came across the phrase social graph in 2007, in an essay by Brad Fitzpatrick, though I'd be curious to know if it goes back further.

The idea of representing relationships between people as networks is old, but this was the first time I had thought about treating the connections between all living people as one big object that you could manipulate with a computer.

At the time he wrote, Fitzpatrick had two points to make. The first was that it made no sense for every social website to try and recreate the same web of relationships, over and over, by making people send each other follow requests. The second was that this relationship data should not be proprietary, but a common resource that rival services could build on as a foundation.

Fitzpatrick subsequently went to work for Google, and his Utopian vision of open standards and open data became subsumed in a rivalry between Google and Facebook. Both companies now offer their version of a social graph API, and Google (which is trying to catch up) has taken up the banner of open standards and data portability.

This rivalry has brought the phrase 'social graph' into wider use. Last week Forbes even went to the extent of calling the social graph an exploitable resource comprarable to crude oil, with riches to those who figure out how to mine it and refine it.

I think this is a fascinating metaphor. If the social graph is crude oil, doesn't that make our friends and colleagues the little animals that get crushed and buried underground?

But right now I would like to take issue with the underlying concept, which I think has two flaws:

I. It's not a graph

The idea of the social graph is that each person is a dot in a kind of grand connect-the-dots game, the various relationships between us forming the lines. Some of these lines may point in one direction (Ted works for Sylvia), while others are reciprocal (Bob is my neighbor). All of them taken together form a mathematical structure called the social graph. Facebook even has a pretty picture!.

We nerds love graphs because they are easy to represent in a computer and there is a vast literature on how to do useful things with them. When you ask Google for directions from Detroit to Redwood City, for example, you're interacting with a graph that represents the US road network. The same principle applies any time a site tells you people who bought object X might also be interested in book Y.

In order to model something as a graph, you have to have a clear definition of what its nodes and edges represent. In most social sites, this does not pose a problem. The nodes are users, while edges means something like 'accepted a connection request from', or 'followed', or 'exchanged email with', depending on where you are.

The way you interpret this is another matter - does clicking 'follow' imply you're friends with someone in real life? But at least what the data model represents is unambiguous.

But when you start talking about building a social graph that transcends any specific implementation, you quickly find yourself in the weeds. Is accepting someone's invitation on LinkedIn the same kind of connection as mutually following them on Twitter? Can we define some generic connections like 'fan of' or 'follower' and re-use them for multiple sites? Does it matter that you can see who your followers are on site X but not on site Y?

One way to solve this comparison problem is with standards. Before pooling your data in the social graph, you first map it to a common vocabulary. Google, for example, uses XFN as part of their Social Graph API. This defines a set of about twenty allowed relationships. (Facebook has a much more austere set: close_friends, acquaintances, restricted, and the weaselly user_created).

But these common relationships turn out to be kind of slippery. To use XFN as my example, how do I decide if my cubicle mate is a friend, acquaintance or just a contact? And if I call him my friend, should I interpret that in the northern California sense, or in in some kind of universal sense of friendship?

In the old country, for example, we have two kinds of 'friendship' (distinguished by whether you address one another with the informal pronoun) and going from one status to the other is a pretty big deal; you have to drink a toast with your arms all in a pretzel and it's considered a huge faux pas to suggest it before both people feel ready. But at least it's not ambiguous!

And of course sex complicates things even more. Will it get me in hot water to have a crush on someone but have a different person as my muse? Does spouse imply sweetheart, or do I have to explicilty declare that (perhaps on our 20th anniversary)? And should restrainingOrder be an edge or a node in this data model?

There's also the matter of things that XFN doesn't allow you to describe. There's no nemesis or rival, since the standards writers wanted to exclude negativity. The gender-dependent second e on fiancé(e) panicked the spec writers, so they left that relationship out. Neither will they allow you to declare an ex-spouse or an ex-colleague.

And then there's the question of how to describe the more complicated relationships that human beings have. Maybe my friend Bill is a little abrasive if he starts drinking, but wonderful with kids - how do I mark that? Dawn and I go out sometimes to kvetch over coffee, but I can't really tell if she and I would stay friends if we didn't work together. I'd like to be better friends with Pat. Alex is my AA sponsor. Just how many kinds of edges are in this thing?

And speaking of booze, how come there's a field for declaring I'm an alcoholic (opensocial.Enum.Drinker.HEAVILY) but no way to tell people I smoke pot? Why are the only genders male and female? Have the people who designed this protocol really never made the twenty mile drive to San Francisco?

What happens to dead people in the social graph? Facebook keeps profiles around for a while in memoriam, so we probably shouldn't just purge dead contacts from the social graph immediately. But we certainly don't want them haunting us on LinkedIn - maybe there should be a second, Elysian social graph where we can put those nodes to await us?

You can call this nitpicking, but this stuff matters! This is supposed to be a canonical representation of human relationships. But it only takes five minutes of reading the existing standards to see that they're completely inadequate.

Here the Ghost of Abstractions Past materializes in a flurry of angle brackets, and says in a sepulchral whisper:

“How about we let people define arbitrary relationships between nodes…”

(subject,verb,object)

“Maybe even in XML…”

<Person "john">
    <likesToShareRecipesWith "susan" />
</Person>

“Of course, we'll need namespaces…”

<ns:Person rdf:about="http://www.example.org/#john">
    <ns:likesToShareRecipesWith 
     rdf:resource="http://www.example.org/#susan" />
  </ns:Person>

And RDF rises lurching out of the grave to infect the brains of another generation of young developers.

But even if we go ahead and build the Semantic Web, 2004 edition, and populate it with information about all our connections to other people, it still won't be expressive enough.

One big sticking point is privacy. Do I really want to find out that my pastor and I share the same dominatrix? If not, then who is going to be in charge of maintaining all the access control lists for every node and edge so that some information is not shared? You can either have a decentralized, communally owned social graph (like Fitzpatrick envisioned) or good privacy controls, but not the two together.

There's another fundamental problem in that a graph is a static thing, with no concept of time. Real life relationships are a shared history, but in the social graph they're just a single connection. My friend from ten years ago has the same relationship to me as the friend I dined with yesterday. You're left with forcing people (or their software) to maintain lists like 'Recent Contacts' because there is no place in the model to fit this information.

"No problem," says Poindexter. "We'll add a time series of state transitions and exponentially decaying edge weights, model group dynamics as directional flows, and pass a context object in with each query..." and around we go.

This obsession with modeling has led us into a social version of the Uncanny Valley, that weird phenomenon from computer graphics where the more faithfully you try to represent something human, the creepier it becomes. As the model becomes more expressive, we really start to notice the places where it fails.

Personally, I think finding an adequate data model for the totality of interpersonal connections is an AI-hard problem. But even if you disagree, it's clear that a plain old graph is not going to cut it.

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Exposed, Peeled and Burned - YouTube's Stealth Advertising

The Thing - YouTube ad page graphicRan into a silly YouTube popup ad today which got me thinking about the viability of intrusive advertising operating on the element of surprise.

This YouTube popup is a crafty page reveal seamlessly designed to look like a YouTube video gone wild, accomplished with jQuery-enabled transparency controls that mount a fake video precisely over the regular video content area. When you hit the play button on the "video" it actually starts playing Flash-created content that often creates the illusion of moving imagery breaking out of the confines of the video area.  This common type of ad creative in metro news websites is now executed with a twist on YouTube.

The popup I encountered was a promo for the film The Thing, part of a promotional blitz in advance of the film's opening day (two days from the date of this post). For the paid link placement, there are 7 different variations of content advertising various ersatz videos, all of which have irresistible YouTube-ish themes ("Baby goes nuts over food" "Sexy girl in very small bikini" etc.). I imagine the agency who created this campaign have a pool going with the analytics... winner-take-all for whoever guesses the ad copy that gains the biggest billings.
 

This kind of thing is solidly positioned in a grey area of advertising best practices. On the one hand, any time you are taken out of your chosen experience on the web it usually engenders a negative reaction from the end user. On the other, anyone who's been using the web for more than a week or so should be able to identify a sponsored link, and be prepared for anything if they choose to click on it - even if the paid placement is curiously triggered by almost any irrelevant search query.

There is also the question of mild deception in the ad visuals. Both the ad copy and the fake YouTube interface for these trailers boasts visitor views well into seven figures, but this number is not generated by a YouTube counter; it's just an arbitrary number displayed in a static graphic as part of the joke. Ditto for the "comments" from non-existent YouTube members. We know that content views increase exponentially with popularity; as an ad platform, shouldn't YouTube be concerned about any devaluation of this powerful display metric, however playfully it's intended?

I think the bottom line is: Does the method of deception + irreverant humor = the sensibilities of the target moviegoer?

The X factor would seem to be the content alluded to in the sponsored ad copy. If the content deceives with the promise of seeing footage of a scantily-clad female, then advertising best practices may not qualify to be in the debate; it's the campaign's effectiveness that becomes the central issue. You determine if you're reaching a group of people who are very likely to pay for the product. If so then they will more than likely enjoy the intrusion into their YouTube experience and you'll get the exposure (viral and traditional) you're looking for. If not, you have to chalk it up as a big fail - you've just generated negative vibe about the product, and have helped to burn people out on an interactive ad idea that can be quite effective when deftly executed.

Facebook Vastly Overvalued, Say Econophysicists - Technology Review

Facebook Vastly Overvalued, Say Econophysicists

Placing a value on a company is always a tricky business. History is filled with examples of disastrous valuations that are hard to credit in retrospect. The dotcom bubble of the late 90s is one of the best known examples.

And yet crazy valuations continue apace. One current bubble involves social media companies such as LinkedIn, Twitter, Groupon and, of course, Facebook. In July, the latter announced that it had 750 million users, an astronomical number that is dwarfed only by the company's valuation which stands at anything from $65 billion to north of $100 billion.

By that measure, the company's current and future users will each have to generate a remarkable amount of income for the company, numbers that reek of the boom and bust economics of the dot com era.

So how much is Facebook really worth? Today, Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, econophysicists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, inject a little sanity into the debate. They argue that it is actually easier to value social media companies than other firms because their revenue is so obviously based on a singe simple metric: the number of users.

All that is required is a reasonable model of user growth and a good understanding of the profit each user can generate.

For Facebook, user growth is pretty straightforward. Cauwels and Sornette argue that although Facebook's growth has been exponential in the past, this cannot continue if only because of the finite number of people on the planet. Instead, Facebook user numbers will eventually level off, following a classic s-shaped curve.

Indeed, they say Facebook's growth has already changed. In 2010, they say it switched from exponential to s-shaped.

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Patriotic Purchasing

USASamuelAdams.jpgFor more than 65 years, the family that founded Sub-Zero has believed that consumers purchase the company’s premium products because of their quality. But recently, with a groundswell of support for American-made items, the Madison, Wis.-based manufacturer of built-in home refrigeration has found it important to tell that story, too.

“We’re not waving flags and saying that should be the sole decision-maker,” Sub-Zero corporate marketing manager Paul Leuthe says. “But there is a heritage there, and we’re proud of it.”

U.S. consumers don’t have to look far these days to hear encouragement for buying American. Moved by the sluggish economy, bloggers and pundits have touted the link between U.S. manufacturing and U.S. jobs. But complex issues rarely have simple solutions: Are consumers willing to pay more for a made-in-the-U.S.A. label? If so, how much? Are margins already too tight for retailers to eat additional costs? Has too much infrastructure moved offshore for the opening of another mill to make a difference? Would it help if American manufacturing concentrated on the industries they do best and let the rest go?

“We’ve been sticking to our knitting, and that’s what has led to us being a brand leader in the marketplace,” Leuthe says. The company is more than just surviving: Sub-Zero — which acquired Wolf cooking appliances in 2000 — recently outgrew its Phoenix production facilities and purchased a 440,000-sq.-ft. building for developing new products. And though it had to let some employees go when the recession was at its worst, many already have been hired back.

“There is an optimism in the company,” Leuthe says. “With the new facility, it would have been easy to go south of the border, but our owner said, ‘No, I’m going to keep it here.’ We have a number of competitors out there, but we feel like we do it better than anyone else due to our components, systems and work ethic. We’re only going after our niche, and that’s one of the reasons we haven’t migrated offshore with our production.”

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We ♥ Email Worst Practices

Until recently, no email manager could keep their seat in the marketing department if they didn't employ subject line best practices in an effort to sqeeeeeeze the maximum open rate from every mailing. All email freaks became little copy fanatics with their eyes focused on stingy character count limits, discount percentages, and every exclamation mark.

Then something happened - everything started sounding the same.

Check these recent sub lines from some very active e-tailers... guaranteed to cure insomnia and send their accompanying promotions into the Gmail trash bin:

Save up to 20% on Living Room Essentials (Pottery Barn)
25% off shoes + new arrivals. $5 shipping on $50 (Deb Shops)
Extra 20% Off Sale Items + Kid & Baby Sale! (Gymboree)
4 days only! Save up to 75% + get FREE shipping (Oriental Trading)

With copy like the above boring the shopping population to death, it's lucky any of their customers ever converted anything. 

But times have changed, and now savvy marketers are let off their leashes to have a bit of fun. Here are some of the best from the first quarter of 2011...

Baby gear: A selection to drool for. (Target)
    A big box marketing department that pens wacky tag lines like this is part of why we love the red bullseye

 cutest handbag ever (Fred Flare)
    Even a guy can't resist opening this one

Save The Earth: BYOB (Urban Outfitters)
   Classic UO tag line; cryptic, customer-savvy and promotional in just 3 words and an anagram

You in bloom. (Anthropologie)
   Unafraid to let their copywriters be elegant - also very on-brand

Eat your Heart out ______! (80s Purple)
   Valentine's Day promo with a twist - celebrating the absence of the dull ex-boyfriend

Uh oh... this isn't good. (Heartland America)
    The text in the email body continues: "…for us. But GREAT NEWS for YOU!" Heartland loves the rimshot ba-dum-bum approach.

omg it's NEW... (Fred Flare)
    lol, r u serius w that s***?

ThinkGeek: Driving people crazy since 1999 (ThinkGeek)
    This is actually pretty straightforward... for a retailer selling mobile phone jammers and Lego light blocks

Galaxy Wars...& Cupcakes?! (Shana Logic)
    Another of SL's many sub lines that seem to have been conceived under the influence of medical-grade marijuana

We ♥ Babies! (Carter's)
Five ★ Favorites! (Free People)
    Two more etailers join the special characters ♣

HALF-OFF (Overstock)
    Any questions?

Hunting for Great Whites? Shop Our Best-Selling Men's Shirt in 3 New Textures (The Territory Ahead)
    Like a laid-back J. Peterman, this apparel retailer always takes a little extra time with their copy 

Gorgeous! (Torrid)
    I'm so there!

This dress is only $38 (Fred Flare)
    The hits keep coming from Fred Flare


 

The Epsilon Breach: How Worried - and Angry - Should You Be?

By now, unless you keep your money under your mattress and don't shop for groceries, electronics, or clothing, you've probably received an email from one of the following institutions, apologizing for an email breach: Brookstone, Best Buy, The College Board, Citi, Walgreens, Disney Destinations, McKinsey & Company, the Home Shopping Network, JPMorgan Chase, TiVo, Kroger, Captial One...the list goes on. (And was diligently collected by SecurityWeek.) The email will have informed you of a security breach.

The same company, Epsilon, handles email services for all the brands mentioned above, and many more. Epsilon sends something like 40 billion emails each year on behalf of its 2,500 clients. Yesterday, Epsilon said about 2% of its clients--some 50 brands--were affected by the breach.

What began with a trickle of coverage--a tiny peep of a press release, a post or two on SecurityWeek and Mashable--erupted into a flood of media, with NPR's Planet Money announcing yesterday: "Someone Just Stole Your Email Address."

Reached for comment today, an Epsilon spokesperson was tightlipped, saying only that Epsilon was conducting a full investigation and working with authorities. She declined to respond on the record to questions about the nature of the attack, who Epsilon was working with, or how Epsilon might work to prevent further breaches.

Since Epsilon won't comment, we found someone who would: phishing expert Jason Hong, a computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon. "Regarding the Epsilon breach, at this point we can only speculate about what will happen since we don't know who took the data and why," he says. Various possibilities: it might be "script kiddies" (amateur hackers out for fun or bragging rights), or it might be more sophisticated hackers who want email addresses for spamming purposes. Or it could be a rival of Epsilon out to embarrass them. "It's also possible that hackers thought there was more information on Epsilon's servers, but didn't find anything interesting," says Hong.

"The most obvious outcome is that we will get a lot more apology emails in the next few weeks," he continues. "So far, all the ones I've seen say the same thing, about how a breach happened, and that the attackers have your name and email address but no other sensitive information. Some emails also have information about how to avoid phishing attacks and other scams, but as we've seen in past research, just telling people how to protect themselves is not very effective."

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The Onion Uses HTML5 in New iPad App

The Onion iPad Application

The satirical  Onion newspaper has recently struggled with the same problems as other less-jocular print news outlets in America: a dwindling print readership and evaporating local advertising.

To battle this inevitable change, The Onion has taken on the transition from print to digital with a growing portfolio of downloadable mobile apps. These applications have been downloaded more than 1 million times, according the company.

On Friday, The Onion released a free iPad application that showcases its comical news articles and videos.

In a company press release, The Onion billed its new app as an experience that will allow readers “to touch the news. That’s right. Swipe it, poke it, berate it, and it reacts accordingly. The Onion’s notoriously irreverent content, full screen images, and video are all at the flick of your wrist.”

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Are Cloud Companies in Denial About Risk?

A little more than two years ago I wrote an article for BusinessWeek about a prediction by the analyst Mark Anderson about the potential for a catastrophe in the cloud. It’s only a matter of time, Anderson argued, before something goes terribly wrong with the entire notion of cloud computing, something so bad–a service would go down or a nasty hacker attack would expose or destroy data–that those more careful CIOs who resisted the cloud would end up looking smart.

It hasn’t happened yet, but Drew Bartkiewicz read it and became rather taken by the idea–so much so that he registered the Web domain name cloudcatastrophe.com. Once a regional sales manager for Salesforce.com, he had already drunk deep of the Cloud Kool-Aid. By the time he registered the domain, though, he was working in the insurance industry underwriting insurance policies for technology companies as vice president for cyber and information security risks at The Hartford.

His unique job history has led him to start asking fundamental questions about cloud computing and its business models that should if nothing else give some potential cloud customers pause and nudge cloud service providers–as varied as Salesforce, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and the like–to think about something they rarely talk about: Risk.

Don’t confuse this with security. Talk to the executive of any cloud provider, as I did recently with Adam Selipsky of Amazon, and you quickly find out that cloud providers take security seriously and they mean it, because without it they’re out of business.

Rather, the question is this: If a cloud catastrophe happens–critical, financially valuable data is breached or exposed or destroyed on a large scale–who’s financially liable for the damage to the customer’s business? Is it the cloud provider, who agreed to manage the data on behalf of the customer? Or is cloud computing still a use-at-your-own-risk sort of thing? The answer is, there is no clear answer. Bartkiewicz thinks the cloud computing industry will have to start answering it, and soon.

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Internet Firms' Valuations Reminiscent of Bubbles

I had the misfortune of standing on the front lines while two Bay Area economic bubbles burst during the last decade, as a reporter covering both the dot-com crash and the real estate meltdown.

In the painful and prolonged aftermath of each, the industry, press and observers engaged in a sort of collective confessional, publicly analyzing the mistakes that were made and the lessons learned.

And so, when I read about the planned initial public offerings of unprofitable Internet darlings and the 11-figure valuations of companies with, let's say, ill-defined business models, I get a familiar and unsettling feeling. It's like aching old wounds that foretell a change in the weather.

Demand Media Inc. raised $151 million in its IPO late last month and now boasts a market cap greater than New York Times Co. LinkedIn Corp. and Groupon Inc. are eyeing public premieres that would value the companies at $2 billion and $15 billion, respectively, according to the Wall Street Journal. Pandora Media Inc. wants to raise as much as $100 million in an IPO (though their valuation couldn't be determined).

Meanwhile, Journal reports have put the estimated worth of Facebook at $52 billion, Zynga at $10 billion and Twitter at up to $10 billion.

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The Time, Money, and Energy Conundrum

What an old guy told me that changed my life

Written by: Charles Blakeman

The Time, Money, and Energy Conundrum

When I was just starting out, a creepy old guy (about my age – mid-50s) told me life had a built in problem. He said “The problem with life is this.

When you’re young, you’ve got all the time and all the energy to enjoy life, but no money. When you’re in your middle years, you’ve got all the money and all the energy, but no time. And when you’re retired, you’ve got all the money and all the time, but no energy.”

He then went on to say something very profound. “The key to a good life is to figure out how to have all three at once – you’ll make a lot bigger impact in the world around you if you can figure that one out.”

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